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Police searching for the plane carrying footballer Emiliano Sala are prioritising the theory that he and the pilot made it on to a life raft.
The search has resumed for Cardiff City's £18m new signing after the light aircraft he was travelling on from Nantes disappeared over the Channel.
Guernsey Police said it was looking at four possibilities for the fate of the plane including that it landed on water, with Sala and the pilot making it onto a life raft that was known to be on board.
The other options the force is considering are:
:: The plane landed elsewhere but has not made contact
:: The plane landed on water and Sala and the pilot have been picked up by a passing ship
:: The plane broke up on contact with the water, leaving them in the sea
"Our search area is prioritised on the life raft option," a police statement said.
Two planes took off on Wednesday morning to search a "targeted area" believed to have the "highest likelihood of finding anything", officers said.
Police previously warned that the chances of passenger survival were "slim" if the aircraft landed on water.
Sala reportedly voiced fears about the safety of the missing plane in a WhatsApp audio message he sent to friends while on board.
In the message, a voice - reported to be Sala - is heard saying: "I am here in the plane that seems is about to fall to pieces."
He later adds: "I'm scared." Addressing the media in his home country of Argentina, the footballer's father said he was "beginning to think the worst".
Horacio Sala said: "The hours pass and I am just beginning to think the worst.
"We were in touch on Sunday. He was so happy that he was going there, to an even bigger club."
Concerns were raised when the 28-year-old failed to respond to messages on social media after reports he had been travelling to the UK on Monday.
The Argentinian forward, who had played in France since 2012, made Cardiff City history when he was bought for a record fee of £18m on a three-and-a-half year deal from Nantes at the weekend.
The search for the missing aircraft was suspended overnight on Tuesday, with rescue teams finding "no signs" of the plane. Cardiff City chairman Mehmet Dalman confirmed the club had not booked the aircraft for the trip and Sala had "made his own arrangements".
The PA-46 Malibu, a single turbine engine aircraft, left Nantes for Cardiff at 7.15pm on Monday and after requesting to descend, it lost contact with Jersey air traffic control.
Nantes' next Coupe de France match was postponed following Sala's disappearance and fans gathered in the city's Place Royale on Tuesday night to sing songs and lay tributes.
Cardiff's next match against Arsenal at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday is expected to go ahead as planned.
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