Cancer deaths to surge 75 per cent by 2025, India to see one of the sharpest rises: Lancet study

A recent study published in The Lancet journal found that the yearly deaths from cancer are expected to increase by nearly 75 per cent in the next 25 years to 18.6 million. The major driving factors for this rise are a country’s economic growth and an increasingly ageing population. The study also found that new cases of cancer are estimated to increase by 61 per cent to 30.5 million in 2050.

Since 1990, cancer deaths increased 74 per cent to 10.4 million, and new cases more than doubled to 18.5 million in 2023. A majority of these cases are from low and middle-income countries.

Rising Cancer Burden in India

The study found that India would see a sharp rise of 26.4 per cent in cancer rates between 1990-2023, which is among the highest in the world. China was found to see a fall in rates by 18.5 per cent.

Preventable Risk Factors Behind Cancer Deaths

The researchers found that more than 40 per cent of deaths due to cancer around the world are linked to 44 risk factors, which can be addressed, including tobacco use, an unhealthy diet, and high blood sugar, thereby presenting an opportunity for prevention.

Dr Lisa Force from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the US' University of Washington, which coordinates the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study and lead author of the study said, “Despite the clear need for action, cancer control policies and implementation remain underprioritised in global health, and there is insufficient funding to address this challenge



in many settings.”

The Global Burden of Disease Study

The GBD study looks at data from 204 countries and territories to discern trends and patterns in disease and quantify health loss and risk factors across places and time.

Disparities in Cancer Growth Across Countries

The researchers added that while overall death rates across the world fell by 24 per cent between 1990 and 2023, disparities in reduction rates were seen between high- and low-income countries.

Rates of new cases worsened in low-income (up by 24 per cent) and lower-middle-income countries (up by 29 per cent), underscoring the disproportionate growth occurring in regions with lower resources, the team said.

Dr Force said, “Cancer remains an important contributor to disease burden globally and our study highlights how it is anticipated to grow substantially over the coming decades, with disproportionate growth in countries with limited resources.”

The authors of the study wrote, “The reference forecasts (the most likely future) estimate that in 2050 there will be 30.5 million cases and 18.6 million deaths from cancer globally, 60.7 per cent and 74.5 per cent increases from 2024, respectively.”

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